2/18/2004 08:57:00 AM by Rob

It's OK to be excited, but I don't take back a single thing

I will issue two seemingly contradictory statements.

It's OK to be excited that Mad Dog is back, because we now have the best pitching in the whole fee-yucking league, barring injury.

I don't take back a single thing I said, including the fact that having Mad Dog doesn't guarantee a single thing, because we are going to have trouble beating the Ass-Trolls, let alone the other 28 teams.

How can I say this? Simple. Before Maddux signed with us, the Cubs were very CLOSE to having the best staff. Yes, having him pushes us over the top in that regard, but the additional value he brings us is not as great as you think.

The comparison has to be: Maddux expected value vs. Cruz expected value. Or Zambrano expected value or Clement expected value...whomever Maddux bumps out of the rotation. Just off of the cuff, I expect Maddux to go 15-10 with a 3.70 ERA, and I expect whomever gets bumped off to have gone 11-14 with a 4.20 ERA. So we're talking 4 games here.

Important games? Hell Yeah! But, still, four. We only beat Houston by one game last year, and like it or not, they have improved, too.

But you say, Maddux brings so much more, yada yada yada. Fine. I admit, I am riding a nostalgic high today, too. We will talk about him many, many times over the course of the next couple of years, I figure. But he is not what is foremost on my mind today.

I myself am still wondering: who is going to leadoff? How is the second base situation going to resolve itself? And what are we going to do with the automatic outs at SS and catcher? And, most importantly to me, what are we going to do with the logjam of starting pitchers?

In my mind, we have seven (7) major league quality starters. Based on his potential and his spring training last year, if you don't think Angel Guzman could find work on 20 or more MLB staffs, you're nuts. Hell, I think Wellmeyer, Webb, and several other Cub farmhands could find work on many teams, too. But I am going to say seven. (This isn't even counting the re-habbing Ryan Dempster and Mike Sirotka).

Now, Guzman could spend this year in Iowa, in reserve, and nobody should have a problem with it. But it does Juan Cruz no good to be stuck there, or in the back of the pen, another year. What if he bumps Zambrano out of the rotation? Do you think Zambrano is going to approach an extended stay in DesMoines constructively? I don't even think we have the ability to send Matt Clement there, if he is the one that gets bumped, and that COULD happen, too. How happy is he going to be as the Long Man?

We NEED to trade one of them...Cruz, Z, or Clement. This is our strength. We need to use it now to address a weakness, of which we have several.

Two I can think of immediately is a absence of catching and middle infield prospects. Could we get B.J. Upton from the D-Rays? Could we get Dioner Navarro from the Yankees? What if we packaged one of the second basemen? The Steingrabber needs a "name" at second. He would LOVE to put Todd Walker there, to rub it in the collective BoSox Nation face. Cruz and Walker, for Navarro, Miguel Cairo, and another prospect? Or, substitute Clement for Cruz. I may actually prefer that.

This isn't value, I know, but we REALLY need to trade a starter. We have so, so many others in the pipeline. I am deathly afraid that the loser of the derby is going to poison the water with his bitching and sulking. We just as badly need a catcher. Michael Barrett just doesn't do it at ALL for me, kids. Fuck him in the goat-ass. He sucks...the Expos didn't want him...the A's didn't want him...so we got his Shane Andrews-automatic-out-ass?

May I eat my words. Bet I won't.

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