1/29/2004 04:05:00 PM by Rob

Delusions of grandeur

Look, I wish Derrek Lee all the best luck in the world. He's OUR first baseman now. I hope he does hit 40 home runs. I hope Alou hits 40, Ramirez hits 40, Gonzalez hits 40, Patterson hits 40, hell, I hope Mark Prior hits 40.

And I hope Kerry Wood hits 40 batters. That would be fun. But I digress.

There are plenty of bloggers out there, like me, that just talk out of their ass. God bless 'em. But they obviously never even peek at the "free" content at BP, because their theory seems to be based on a notion last accurate in the eighties, namely:

If he hit thirty with the Marlins, in their park, he'll hit 40 by accident at Wrigley!

Except, believe it or not, Wrigley field is in the BOTTOM half these days for offense. Yes, for the last ten years or so, Wrigley is a Pitcher's Park.

It is less so than Joe Robbie, or Pro Player, or whatever they call the football/jai alai den in Miami. But no longer can you take anyone's homer totals, stick them in Wrigley, and tack 20% to them. In fact, if your new blood is coming in from Colorado, Houston, or even the CellBlock, you need to subtract in order to compute a true expected slugging percentage.

So people, I WANT to see him hit 100. But STOP IT NOW with the "He'll hit 40 easy". There is absolutely NO basis to suggest that 40 homers is an absolutely sure thing, and I am cautioning us to pull back on your expectations of this particular player.

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