12/19/2003 12:42:00 PM by Rob

2004 Upgrade Analysis

Been all over Cub Blog Nation, trying to cherrypick from everyone else's analysis, and everyone else seems as underwhelmed as me. Joe seemed to have the best idea: "At least it wasn't Singleton". Yeeeesh!

I have the nagging feeling that this is IT for awhile, since it appears that Pudge will have ample opportunity to sample Boog's BBQ, so let's look at what we have, and assign each slot on the 25 man a '2' for standing pat, a '4' for a massive upgrade, and a big fat Al Oliver for a complete failure.

Listed in terms of 2004 Player - 2003 Equivalent - Net - Optional comment

SP Mark Prior - Mark Prior - 2
SP Kerry Wood - Kerry Wood - 2
SP Matt Clement - Matt Clement - 2
SP Carlos Zambrano - Carlos Zambrano - 2

The top of the rotation is static. I pretty much expect a repeat, barring injury. Prior may win 20, Clement is going to go .500, Zambrano may be slightly less mericurial and more steady, and Wood needs to get signed. His contract is causing problems in terms of greatly improving the offense. I still would not hesitate to package him in a deal for A-Rod. But that is the ONLY scenario I can consider trading Wood in.

SP Jamey Wright - Shawn Estes - 2

Yes, Estes sucked last year, but he did win 8 games. To me, there were two turning points to the 2003 regular season - the 5th game of the St. Louis series, and Estes' shutout. They are trying to find ST invitee-Esteban Loiaza lightning in the bottle with Wright. This will be a good test of the scouting capabilities of the club. I say he wins about 8-9 games this year.

RP Mike Remlinger - Mike Remlinger - 2
RP Joe Borowski - Joe Borowski - 1
RP Kyle Farnsworth - Kyle Farnsworth - 1
RP Juan Cruz - Juan Cruz - 2
RP LaTroy Hawkins - Antonio Alfonseca - 5
RP Kent Mercker - Mark Guthrie - 3
RP Todd Wellmeyer - Dave Veres - 2

I think that Lucifer is going to start coming around this year, telling Reg'lar Joe to quit stalling and pay up. I also think it is too much to ask Cap'n Tightpants to remain focused for a whole another year. Juan Cruz is a bust, I'm convinced, so nothing from nothing leaves...you know.

I broke my own rule, and gave LaTroy a 5, just look at who he's replacing.

C Barrett/Bako - Miller/Bako - 3
1B Lee - Simon/Choi/Karros - 3
2B Grud - Grud - 1
SS Gonzalez - Gonzalez - 2
3B Ramirez - Bellhorn/FatAssLenny/Ramirez - 3
IF Martinez - Martinez - 2
IF Jose Macias NEW! - AugieDoggie/Womack/Assorted Mangoo - 2

I figure at this point, Barrett has to be signed. We really don't need a disappointed Damian Miller around. Do I expect Barrett to be good? Nooo...but he couldn't be any worse than Miller was last year at bat.

Grud was too far over his skiis in 2003, and I don't see him hitting .314 again. Jose Macias, I know nothing about, but compared to Augie Doggie, can be considered a push, at least.

OF Alou - Alou - 1
OF Patterson - Patterson/Lofton - 1
OF Sosa - Sosa - 3
OF Goodwin - Goodwin - 2
OF Hollandsworth - O'Leary - 4

No way Alou holds up again this year. Sorry, no way. Patterson will be slow to come back this year, and cannot match the production he had at the beginning of last, year, combined with Lofton's late production. Goodwin is a good backup, and the new guy? If he has a pulse, and registers on the blood pressure cuff, is a major upgrade over the corpse of Troy O'Leary.

WARNING...WARNING...SoSa PrAiSe AlErT...WARNING...WARNING

Sosa had 66 dongs in 1998 and probably had the finest offensive performance of the last 50 years in 2001. But to me, his greatest performance came at the second half of last year, when he transformed to a cheating, lying, cork-packing slimeball to a 40-homer hitter WITHOUT da ju-ice! He has learned to hit post-steroids, and if he can escape HGH detection this year, so much the better for the Cubs.

SO, adding up the numbers I get an average of 2.2. Remember, I said that 2 was a push, so I can consider the current roster, pending the addition of a backup infielder, very slightly improved over 2003. Maybe the 88 wins become 90.

You may then say...this slight improvement, is it worth 5 outs in a LCS? Is it enough to gain the pennant?

That's a difficult question, considering the improvement of Philly's bullpen, the addition of Andy Pettitte to the Ass-Trolls, and what I feel are shrewd little moves by the Evil Satanic Fowl from St. Louis. And, you heard it here first, look out for the Padres.

I say it isn't. There isn't enough middle-of-the order production to make up for the lack of a true leadoff man, or the albatross that is the catchers' spot in the lineup. I really needed to see Pudge there to deem us pennant-worthy.

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