10/31/2003 08:59:00 AM by Rob

Trying to light the pilot on the hot stove

Intriguing article in today's New York Post about the Red Sox, the Rangers, and an unnamed "third team". Seems that Texas will trade ARod for pitching. The Sawx are sick of not only Manny, but No-mah. This makes little sense to me, 'cause isn't Nomah the kind of OBP machine the saberweenies love? Yes, he's hurt often, but so are a lot of other guys. Now, the Sawx don't have the depth in pitchers that Texas demands, so the third team becomes necessary, and guess who has pitching?

Well, anyway, why this matters to us is that that, when asked who else he would like to play for, ARod mentioned the Mutts and.....yes, your Chicago Cubs. Well, the Mutts don't want him. It's just nice to be on people's short list.

More on this in a bit.

The other article was in today's Trib, where it is noted that after Sammy picks up his option, and there is no mention of giving him the Ramirez treatment, dammit, that the Cubs will have $55M tied up in 8 guys: Prior, Wood, Sosa, Alou, Gonzalez, Erroris, Remlinger, and Miller. They are also planning on picking up Clement's option, and of course, they have rights to Zambrano, Cruz, Choi, Farnsworth, Patterson, Borowski, and Martinez.

They could shed around $25M with the expected departures of free agents Eric Karros, Mark Grudzielanek, Antonio Alfonseca, Shawn Estes, Dave Veres and Mark Guthrie. Of those six, Grudzielanek is the only one who may return, though it would be at a salary much lower than the $5.5M he earned in 2003.

They ended the season with a payroll of $83M. Right now, they are around $65M, and they are aiming for a payroll around $90M. So you got $25M from which to build outfield depth, catching depth, make decisions at first and second, and fill in your bullpen, according to Jim Hendry.

Or, if you see it my way, you cheaply sign Lofton and Goodwin, put Alou at first, have a competition in the pen with some of the much-ballyhooed pitching prospects, and use the remaining $17M to get real offensive options behind the plate and in the middle infield. If so, then you can trade the $4M from Gonzalez, to add to the pool.

Anyway, back to my original thought. S'pose we wanted ARod. Fuck Boston, who needs them in this equation. Is there a way to fit him in under the salary structure, and not give up too much of our pitching core? In other words, not give up Kerry Wood?

If you insist that Gonzalez be part of the trade, you do not sign Lofton, you let Choi take over 1B (since he will now be allowed to develop because ARod provides power numbers to make up the difference), then you have 65 - 4 = 61 + 25 = 86, and you have 4M left to cover a backup catcher, 5th outfielder, 3 bullpen arms, and oops, you still don't have a second baseman.

Well, the good news is that there actually still is some money left, because the bad news is that Texas will demand major league arms as part of the deal, and they probably will insist on Wood. We could offer them Z, Cruz, and/or Clement, but not all three. That would free up enough salary to bring back Grud.

So the question is, would you throw your salary structure out of whack, and risk gutting your pitching staff? Well, how etched in stone is the salary cap? Next, are guys ready on the farm? Do we have a guy ready to step in the rotation NOW, as well as a couple of guys that can work out of the pen?

If so, then I would do it. I think Wellmeyer and Guzman might be ready, and how is Sanchez and Webb? I wasn't real impressed with Sergio MeatTray. Is Steve Chaisson and Will Ohman finally healthy? Chaisson was good for a while in the pen.

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